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9/25/2024
WT Staff
 Drinking water comments, questions or concerns? Give us a call at 877-52-WATER (877-529-2837), or email us at info@wtla.us
September 25, 2024 updated 703 pm CDT
HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A: National Hurricane Center Miami FL 7 pm EDT Sept 25:
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches).
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
- Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
- Tampa Bay
- Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
Anclote River to Mexico Beach
Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
- Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
- Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
- West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
- Flamingo northward to South Santee River
- Lake Okeechobee
- Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone on the web, here
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, here.
WIND: WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward
across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.
Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba today.
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in
Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological
Service of Cuba.
Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas
of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of
steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, here.
See the Flash Flood Risk graphic, here.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Forecaster Berg.
Streamflow Situation from the network of USGS streamflow gauges in Louisiana
Water levels have dropped across the board overnight, an even mix of normal and below seasonal normal provisional data values measured through the network midweek. The 1st percentile low on Comite River at Comite has recovered to 19th percentile overnight. A 2nd percentile flow is the lowest value recorded, this being Bayou Macon near Kilbourne in the northeast, watershed Region 3. The drought map has taken area in Region 5 watershed overnight, Evangeline and Acadia Parishes rated below normal. Region 3 extreme drought holds on the Tensas River channel, areas rated below normal remain as reported yesterday, including East Union, a corner of west Morehouse, Ouachita, Jackson, Winn, Caldwell and north Catahoula Parishes. The southeast Louisiana surface area remains unrated, no flooding or high flows as of this report.
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