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11/6/2024
WT Staff
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November 6, 2024 updated 209 pm EST
Category 3 Hurricane Rafael threatens west Cuba, heavy rain and storm surge to impact Florida Keys
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1 pm EST Wed Nov 06 2024
RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West, 45 miles NE of the Isle of Youth, 85 miles south of Havana with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual
west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast
track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this
afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico tonight.
Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in
Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur,
Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to
83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
- Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
- Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in
Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found here.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead
to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands
additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, here.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY at 4pm EST.
Forecaster Brown
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