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11/16/2024
WT Staff
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November 16, 2024 203 pm CST
SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
Tropical Storm Sara Update issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 12 pm EST Sat Nov 16
SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West, 40 mi SE of Isla Guanaja Honduras and 205 miles 205 miles ESE of Belize City. Sara is moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight
and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after
landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night
or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found here.
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, here.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
Forecaster Papin
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